Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Don't Predict Your Future, Shape It

In the news nowadays are the new developments at Infosys with co-founder Narayana Murthy bringing Vishal Sikka as CEO. Bringing an outsider into the company has raised many eyebrows and has had a lot of people analyzing it, trying to figure out whether it is a good move or a bad move.

 

But I was most interested to read an interview with Vallabh Bhansali, veteran investment banker, in the Economic Times yesterday with Reena Zachariah and Nishanth Vasudevan. It was so nice to hear his thoughts on all that is going on, and also to get his perspective on what's going on around the world. One of the things that got my attention was his answer to a question that they raised: "Did you ever imagine that Infosys would grow to this size?" His reply: "That it was a company with extraordinary potential was evident. That it would grow into such a mighty oak, nobody knew because it was also a matter of unfolding opportunities which could not all be seen at one go."

 

I was reminded about John Maxwell; he had 5 maxims about companies.

 

1.     Personnel determine the potential of the organization.

2.     Relationships determine the moral of the organization.

3.     Structure determines the size of the organization.

4.     Vision determines the direction of the organization.

5.     Leadership determines the success of the organization.

 

Reading Bhansali's comments about Infosys, one realized that their potential was in their personnel. They had extraordinary personnel as they started out. They had great vision and so they knew the direction the company would take. And the leadership in place was also very good. They also placed a strong emphasis on relationships, which built up morale. They also put in place structure that has determined the size of Infosys. But I came back to one statement that he made at the end: "Entrepreneurs are about doing their thing rather than about predicting any of these things." I like that statement! It's about doing your thing rather than trying to predict the future. Predictions are always based on what is and the potential of what is. So you look at what's happening around you and you say, "Give projections in this particular area for 3 or 4 years or 10 years, and this is how it is going to change." But very few futurists are really able to predict some of the advances that have been coming our way with increasing regularity.

 

That's the key! Entrepreneurs don't worry about predicting the future; they think about shaping the future. Shaping the future is based on what is not yet there; it's based only on unrealized potential that in no way can be predicted because it is still unrealized. But that is what shapes the future. Steve Jobs did it many years ago and continues in the last 15-20 years with Apple, iPod. Nobody thought about an iTunes; then an iPad, iPhone and iMac. All these things came out of dreams and one person trying to visualize something that wasn't there.

 

In the course of that interview, I was fascinated by a comment that Bhansali made about Elon Musk. I piqued my interest as I have been hearing that name over and over again. At 43, this man has done so much and so varied in all the things that he has done. I was listening to this interview on TED where TED curator Chris Anderson was talking to him. I would strongly recommend that you listen to this. It's a wonderful interview and a great insight into the thinking of a man who has brought to the world things like PayPal, Tesla Motors, Solar City, SpaceX – as varied as you could get. PayPal has to do with financing and how to pay for things without using credit cards. Moving from that to the electric car and today there are 25000 of the marketing model S worldwide. Then he had a solar energy leasing company and again, completely different from what he was thinking earlier. Now, he is thinking about a fully reusable rocket in his new company SpaceX – if we are going to have expeditions to Mars, the one thing that is the costliest is the rocket. As of today, the rocket is wasted after boosting the spacecraft up. It is amazing to see that they are trying to build a prototype where the rocket will go up and after releasing its payload, it slowly comes back to earth and can be re-used. He says that only if it can be re-used, can it be a viable option to make expeditions to Mars.

 

I really like his thinking. That's the way we ought to think – innovatively and creatively. What is the point if we use an aeroplane that is tossed at the end of the journey? The fact that it is able to be re-used is what makes it such a viable transport option. People like Steve Jobs, Elon Musk have all been able to think so creatively. Chris Anderson says to him, "I have a theory about you. Somehow you are able to bring together design and technology and business into one package and synthesize it. Tell me, how do you think like that?" Musk replied, "Basically, I try to go back to first principles of reasoning. Really physics. Just boil down things to fundamental truths and reason up from there instead of reasoning by analogy, which is really copying what others are doing with slight variations."

 

How true! Sometimes that's what we do. We think by analogy. We look at something and think that if we tweak it in this manner, then we can have something slightly different. But that's predictable. What about shaping some of the things that are ahead of us? What about getting back to first principles of reasoning and saying, "Let's start there and then reason up"? What are fundamental truths that we need to have?

 

I was just thinking: look at the universe. God thought about sky. Then he thought about something remotely different – water, land. Then again something remotely different – trees, then a canopy of twinkling stars above. Then how about humans and animals – all different, unpredictable, but have brought so much of joy to you and me. I thought if we could get at a micro level, if we could start thinking from that perspective, I wonder how the shape of this world would change. If you and I just began to think differently in our work places, as bosses, as colleagues, as spouses, as parents – if we were to think just a little differently, we would be able to shape a wonderful world. It's never too late to begin to think like that.

 

That's been my challenge today for myself and I want to throw it out for all of you as well. Let's try to shape the future rather than let people predict what's going to happen in the future.

 

Let me pray with you. Almighty God, inspire us today. Help us to think differently, that as we go about our way today, we would look at the fundamental principles of truth that we have, that if we begin to think differently, would create wonderful things that would be a blessing to people all around and leave this world a better place than we found it because we have had a hand in shaping it. Help us to be that. Give us that wisdom and that creativity which You have and which we need. In Jesus' name we pray. Amen.

 

       Vallabh Bhansali, "Infy Founders Created Super Profits."  http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-06-16/news/50623985_1_infosys-founders-vallabh-bhansali

       John Maxwell, "The Twenty One Irrefutable Laws of Leadership." http://thepastorsoffice.com/tag/21-irrefutable-laws-of-leadership-by-john-maxwell/

       Elon Musk interview on TED. http://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_the_mind_behind_tesla_spacex_solarcity#t-1187266

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