Careful Risk

Bill Gore, founder of W.L. Gore and associates had, what he called, a working principle in terms of risk-taking. He called it the 'Waterline Principle'. He said, "Imagine that you are on a huge ship. You take decisions; some decisions that you take are bad decisions and they blow a hole in the side of the ship. If the hole that is blown is above the waterline, then you have the ability to fix it because the water is not gushing in. You can learn from the mistake, patch it up and move on. But if the hole that is blown is below the waterline, then water gushes in and chances are that you would sink depending on how big the hole is, which also determines how quickly you will sink."

 

Basically, he was talking about the decisions that companies take and how they could either be detrimental to the health of the company or a good learning curve. 'How do we get to places where we take decisions that are below the waterline?' was the question that grabbed me. There are so many occasions and instances that we see all around us of companies who take decisions like that, and have quickly faded out and died.

 

Jim Collins would call this – the Third Stage of Decline. He says, "This third stage is about denial of risk and peril. Basically, we begin to take these kinds of decisions that are below the waterline because we have stopped listening to advice around us. We think that we've got it all together and that nothing can happen. This is the area of denial, and it is fraught with risk and danger."

 

He says that the decline actually starts with hubris, or excessive pride or self-confidence, and then moves to greed. Because we think we are doing so well, we want more and more. And as we begin to take more and more, then we begin to pay less attention to some of the negative voices or the voices of caution that may be coming our way. We then spiral down by trying to fix it with short-term solutions or 'silver bullet' solutions instead of taking the ship back into harbor as quickly as possible and trying to fix that leak or get back to basics or sounder principles. If that doesn't happen, then certainly there is capitulation and death of a company.

 

Thinking about that, I thought that each one reading this post might be in positions of power and authority where you get to take risks. Taking a risk is something that is acceptable if you want to do well or want to take the initiative or be imaginative or creative. Nothing great has happened without risk-taking. Yet, on the other hand, we see how detrimental risk can be.

 

So what would be a good way of looking at risk? As I looked at one of the prophetic voices from the older days, that is found in our Scriptures, God said that we must be very careful of not getting to a point of complacency, or of pride and arrogance, or even of over-confidence and thinking that we are the ones who have made it without the help of others or God Himself. I thought that that was the platform that we ought not to have when we take risks. That's not the backdrop that we need.  We need to make sure that these 3 areas are not in our mental makeup before we take the risk. If we take the risk in these areas, then we're actually shooting a hole below the waterline.

 

As always, when I think about how you all are working in your corporate spaces, I also think that it has relevance for each one of us in our individual spaces, that, in our own mental makeup, we too can get to a place where we have hubris, or excessive pride; then greed, we want more and more. Then we stop listening to voices around us because we are riding the crest of a wave and we think nothing can happen to us. Then we go over the top and it's a very tragic fall. I thought as we start this New Year, it might be good to do a mental check of where we are, both in terms of our corporate place and position of authority, as well as in terms of our own personal space and the relationships that we have with our friends, colleagues, family members. Is there a sense of hubris enveloping us, not allowing us to see life the way we ought to see it?

 

So, I felt that I needed to write about risk-taking. While risk-taking is good, we need to make sure that the platform for that risk is not one that is linked with complacency, or pride or arrogance or over-confidence in our own abilities. So maybe today, a mental check would be in order. Ask the question: Am I filled with pride? Am I reaching for more because I think nothing can go wrong? It could be a sobering decision think and say that you need to be careful. I think we can never go wrong with being careful about things that we do. Every now and then, I think we need to stop, look at our lives and ask the hard questions: Am I on the right trajectory or do I need to make a course correction? I leave that decision to you as my concluding thought.

 

May I pray with you? Almighty God, help us to make the right decision. Help us to look very clinically at ourselves and ask the hard questions. If there is need for us to make course corrections today, would You help us to do that, for we know that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to do it on our own. We ask this in Jesus' precious name. Amen.

 

•       Jim Collins. "How the Mighty Fall: A Primer on the Warning Signs." https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2009-05-14/how-the-mighty-fall-a-primer-on-the-warning-signs

•       Bible reference: Amos chapter 6. https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Amos+6&version=NLT