Overcoming the Black Swan

I don't know how many of you have heard about the Black Swan. The Black Swan was something that came to the fore sometime in 1697. Till then everybody thought that the swan was only white in color. There was a saying, "The probability of something like this happening is like suddenly seeing a black swan." But then, in Western Australia, a Dutch explorer found a black swan and that changed everything. Black swans became something that was there, not visible and then suddenly shows up on the scene. That's something that happens in our own lives as well. We come across black swans.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his book 'The Black Swan' written in 2007 but revised in 2010 says, "Black swans are events that happen that take us by surprise. They have a major impact and after it happens, then we begin to rationalize it and say that it could have been expected but we never expected it." It's almost like the saying on hindsight: "Hindsight is 20/20 vision."

Most of us have black swans that swim into our lives at some point or the other. They take us by surprise and after we are done with the surprise, we then look back and try to make sense of what's going on. More often than not, damage has already been done by that event. Sometimes it's just damage; sometimes it throws us in different ways. But in any case, when a black swan event happens in our lives, it takes us completely by surprise.

I was reading an article by Arijit Roy who is a Faculty member at AIIMS Bangalore, entitled 'The Bite of the Black Swan' where he says that the black swan has 3 distinct characteristics.

1. It is an out-lier, i.e. it lies outside the realm of our human experience and expectations. It is something that has never happened before making us incapable of predicting it.
2. It has a huge impact. Since it is unexpected, it has the potential to disrupt our everyday normal conventions and wisdom
3. Human minds have a tendency to seek explanations of an event after it has impacted them. So black swans can be interpreted and explained after their occurrence.

These 3 distinct features are the rarity of occurrence, severity of impact and the ability of interpretation.

Then he goes on to give examples of black swan events:

• Invention of the first computer, making us more accurate and efficient.
• Invention of the internet, changing the way we communicate and do business.
• The first Industrial Revolution, making us more productive.
• The First World War, making us aware of manmade destruction.
• The launch of the iPod, changing the way we listen to music.

All of this shows us that these are things that come from our blind side. They come unexpectedly and then they change the things that happen in our lives. And sometimes black swans, like the launch of the iPod or the internet or the Industrial Revolution, would be a positive influence. But sometimes black swans are dark in their brooding over us and they come and take away joy and peace because they take away some of our stability.

Arijit Roy goes on to say; "I read somewhere that 'Economics is funny; everything here starts with an assumption. For e.g., let us assume that price and income to be constant. Why is it so? It is because of our tendency to make complex situations easy by assigning it reasons and causes and making assumptions that match with our views of the world. It is in this process of simplification that we end up overlooking more important clues."

So we simplify things, yet lose the clues that are all around us telling us that we need to be careful. Then he goes on to say, "No matter how intelligent we think ourselves to be, how efficient we believe we are, there is no guarantee that man's existence will not be challenged by the next black swan. Remember, the moment we try to bring in certainty with assumptions, we are the most vulnerable to its impact." What he is really saying is that we have to live in a state of uncertainty, because it is in the state of uncertainty that we can best be prepared for the black swans that come our way.

That's not a very comforting thought. It says that there are no foundations on which we can stand; nothing certain on which we can walk. As we look at our lives, that's a difficult place to be. Maybe this morning I am talking to some of you who have had black swans swim into your lake. Maybe things were going very well and all of a sudden the rug got pulled from under your feet. Today you're in damage-control mode, you're trying to make sense of what happened, you're trying to do the best you can in this particular situation, but it's shaken you. It's left you with a lot of uncertainty. It's left you doing things that you were not prepared to do before. It's left you looking for answers you never thought you would be looking for. In short, it's shaken your world completely.

If that is where we are, that we cannot have certainty and assumptions in this whole scenario of black swans, then what would be solid ground for us? How do we look at the uncertainties of the day? How do we look ahead to the future?

During the time when I had this issue with my health, I got a massage from a friend who gave me a passage from the Bible. It lifted my spirits because my health issues came as quite a shock to me. But these words calmed my spirit and I want to give them to you. It is from Isaiah 43: 1-3.

Don't be afraid, I've redeemed you.

I've called your name. You're mine.

When you are in over your head, I'll be there with you.

When you're in rough waters, you will not go down.

When you're between a rock and a hard place, it won't be a dead end –

Because I am God, your personal God. 

Isn't it beautiful to know that in a world of uncertainty, in a world where we can't have strong assumptions that can help us to predict things and walk with a certain degree of equanimity, God is saying that even if there is a black swan event in your day, I will be with you? Even when you think you're in rough waters, you will not go down. Even when you are between a rock and a hard place, it won't be a dead end. Why? Because I am your God, your personal God and I am looking out for you.

That's the message I have for you today, that whatever situation or circumstances you are in right now, the constant, the solid foundation, the rock on which you can stand is the Almighty God. And I pray and hope that you will be able to stand on that certainty today whatever you are facing in your offices.

God Bless You All.